← Serie A 2023-24 · Mon, May 20, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Di Bello
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hellas Verona FC win | 57% | 58% | 1.70 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 26% | 3.93 | fair |
| Salernitana win | 19% | 16% | 5.30 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hellas Verona FC +0.75 | 52% | 1.91 |
| Salernitana +0.75 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 53% | 1.84 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 47% | 2.07 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Junior Sambia · Salernitana |
| 22' | ⚽ | Tomáš Suslov · Hellas Verona FC |
| 45' | ⚽ | Michael Folorunsho · Hellas Verona FC |
| 56' | 🟨 | Ondrej Duda · Hellas Verona FC |
| 71' | 🟨 | Toma Bašić · Salernitana |
| 73' | 🟨 | Loum Tchaouna · Salernitana |
| 73' | 🟨 | Suat Serdar · Hellas Verona FC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Giulio Maggiore · Salernitana |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 9 | Shots | 17 |
| 1 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 19 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Salernitana | Hellas Verona FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.80 |
| venue | Stadio Arechi |
| coach days |
| 80.00 |
| 324.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 2.82 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1459.36 | 1565.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.94 | 18.55 |
| eye test v1 | -0.88 | -0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.20 | 54.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | — |
| league points | 16.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 18.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.60 | 66.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.40 | 41.20 |
| rest days | 8.02 | 8.15 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 0.44 | 0.94 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.49 | -1.18 |
| solidity v1 | -1.26 | 0.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | — | 25.97 |
| state index | -1.50 | 0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.24 | -1.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.96 | 1.16 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.69 | 1.23 |