← Serie A 2023-24 · Sun, May 19, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Guida
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Udinese Calcio win | 49% | 45% | 2.01 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 33% | 3.30 | value: +10% |
| Empoli win | 22% | 21% | 4.51 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Empoli −0.5 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Udinese Calcio −0.5 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 58% | 1.57 | fair |
| Over | 38% | 42% | 2.53 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Alberto Grassi · Empoli |
| -5' | 🟥 | Alberto Grassi · Empoli |
| 4' | 🟨 | Alberto Grassi · Empoli |
| 34' | 🟨 | Nehuén Pérez · Udinese Calcio |
| 54' | 🟨 | Simone Bastoni · Empoli |
| 64' | 🟨 | Ardian Ismajli · Empoli |
| 75' | 🟨 | Emmanuel Gyasi · Empoli |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jacopo Fazzini · Empoli |
| 90' | 🟨 | Răzvan Marin · Empoli |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | M'Baye Niang · Empoli |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 4 |
| 2 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Udinese Calcio | Empoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.17 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.13 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Bluenergy Stadium |
| ⚽ (pen) |
| Lazar Samardžić · Udinese Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 48.00 | 139.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -5.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 8.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.26 | 2.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1665.97 | 1626.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.24 | -7.55 |
| eye test v1 | -0.47 | -1.63 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.20 | 49.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.79 |
| league points | 33.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 70.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 35.20 | 40.20 |
| rest days | 5.85 | 7.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.92 | 0.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.86 | -1.31 |
| solidity v1 | 0.76 | -0.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 1.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| squad age | 25.91 | 27.45 |
| state index | 0.27 | -0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.66 | -0.60 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.86 | 1.64 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.08 | 0.62 |