← Serie A 2023-24 · Sun, May 12, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Santoro
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 83% | 88% | 1.17 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 11% | 7% | 9.00 | fair |
| Salernitana win | 6% | 4% | 19.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Salernitana −2.25 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Juventus FC −2.25 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 70% | 65% | 1.38 | fair |
| Under | 30% | 35% | 3.20 | value: +13% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Dušan Vlahović · Juventus FC |
| 25' | 🟨 | Adrien Rabiot · Juventus FC |
| 27' | ⚽ | Niccolò Pierozzi · Salernitana |
| 68' | 🟨 | Alessandro Zanoli · Salernitana |
| 85' | 🟨 | Junior Sambia · Salernitana |
| 87' | 🟨 | Vincenzo Fiorillo · Salernitana |
| 90' | 🟨 | Toma Bašić · Salernitana |
| 90' | 🟨 | Triantafyllos Pasalidis · Salernitana |
| 90' | ⚽ | Adrien Rabiot · Juventus FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 25 | Shots | 13 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Juventus FC | Salernitana |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.18 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Allianz Stadium |
| coach days |
| 1107.00 |
| 72.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -5.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.55 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1810.49 | 1451.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.16 | -23.96 |
| eye test v1 | 0.06 | -1.03 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.60 | 53.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.56 |
| league points | 66.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 17.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 72.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 40.60 |
| rest days | 6.89 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.89 | 0.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.23 | -1.13 |
| solidity v1 | 1.00 | -1.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 27.46 | — |
| state index | 0.72 | -1.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.01 | -0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.07 | 1.95 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.29 | 0.77 |