← Serie A 2023-24 · Sun, May 12, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Marinelli
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino FC win | 37% | 41% | 2.63 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 33% | 31% | 2.91 | fair |
| Hellas Verona FC win | 30% | 28% | 3.30 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Torino FC +0 | 55% | 1.79 |
| Hellas Verona FC +0 | 45% | 2.20 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 64% | 62% | 1.50 | fair |
| Over | 36% | 38% | 2.75 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 38' | 🟨 | Tijjani Noslin · Hellas Verona FC |
| 44' | 🟨 | Giangiacomo Magnani · Hellas Verona FC |
| 67' | ⚽ | Karol Świderski · Hellas Verona FC |
| 77' | ⚽ | Zanos Savva · Torino FC |
| 83' | ⚽ | Pietro Pellegri · Torino FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tomáš Suslov · Hellas Verona FC |
| 90' | 🟥 | Thomas Henry · Hellas Verona FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Karol Linetty · Torino FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pietro Pellegri · Torino FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 6 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 19 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hellas Verona FC | Torino FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.18 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi |
| coach days |
| 316.00 |
| 1046.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.80 | 1.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1574.20 | 1687.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.43 | -17.85 |
| eye test v1 | -0.53 | -0.70 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.70 | 52.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.85 |
| league points | 34.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.80 | 84.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.80 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.76 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.39 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 1.34 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.87 | 0.15 |
| solidity v1 | -0.24 | 1.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 25.82 | 27.05 |
| state index | 0.29 | -0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.67 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.50 | 0.81 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.24 | 0.90 |