← Serie A 2023-24 · Sat, May 11, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: S. Sozza
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 60% | 77% | 1.63 | value: +25% ⚠ |
| Draw | 22% | 13% | 4.40 | fair |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 18% | 10% | 5.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cagliari Calcio −1 | 52% | 1.89 |
| AC Milan −1 | 48% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 63% | 1.72 | value: +9% |
| Under | 43% | 37% | 2.22 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | 🟨 | Ismaël Bennacer · AC Milan |
| 33' | 🟨 | Matteo Gabbia · AC Milan |
| 35' | ⚽ | Ismaël Bennacer · AC Milan |
| 59' | ⚽ | Christian Pulišić · AC Milan |
| 63' | ⚽ | Nahitan Nández · Cagliari Calcio |
| 69' | 🟨 | Yerry Mina · Cagliari Calcio |
| 74' | ⚽ | Tijjani Reijnders · AC Milan |
| 83' | ⚽ | Rafael Leão · AC Milan |
| 86' | ⚽ | Christian Pulišić · AC Milan |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 13 |
| 10 | On target | 7 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AC Milan | Cagliari Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.80 |
| venue | Stadio Giuseppe Meazza |
| coach days |
| 1684.00 |
| 496.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.20 | 2.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1834.34 | 1571.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.49 | 15.29 |
| eye test v1 | 0.60 | -0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.52 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.90 | 46.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.64 |
| league points | 71.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.40 | 68.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.40 | 34.40 |
| rest days | 6.11 | 6.34 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 2.03 | 0.94 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.40 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.80 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.39 | -1.36 |
| solidity v1 | -0.17 | 0.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.86 | — |
| state index | 0.33 | -0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.35 | -1.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.42 | 1.25 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.82 | 1.20 |