← Serie A 2023-24 · Sat, May 11, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Pairetto
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 50% | 48% | 1.95 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 24% | 3.46 | fair |
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 22% | 28% | 4.40 | value: +21% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| SSC Napoli −0.25 | 58% | 1.68 |
| Bologna FC 1909 −0.25 | 42% | 2.33 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 51% | 49% | 1.90 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 51% | 2.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stadio Diego Armando Maradona |