← Serie A 2023-24 · Sun, May 5, 10:30 AM UTC · ref: M. Marcenaro
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cagliari Calcio win | 44% | 41% | 2.21 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 33% | 3.22 | value: +8% |
| US Lecce win | 26% | 25% | 3.77 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cagliari Calcio −0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| US Lecce −0.25 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 64% | 1.63 | value: +4% |
| Over | 41% | 36% | 2.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Roberto Piccoli · US Lecce |
| 26' | ⚽ | Yerry Mina · Cagliari Calcio |
| 44' | 🟥 | Gianluca Gaetano · Cagliari Calcio |
| 54' | 🟨 | Nicola Sansone · US Lecce |
| 56' | 🟨 | Ylber Ramadani · US Lecce |
| 64' | 🟨 | Simone Scuffet · Cagliari Calcio |
| 74' | 🟨 | Nahitan Nández · Cagliari Calcio |
| 74' | 🟨 | Federico Baschirotto · US Lecce |
| 77' | 🟨 | Tommaso Augello · Cagliari Calcio |
| 78' | 🟨 | Alessandro Deiola · Cagliari Calcio |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 10 |
| 9 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cagliari Calcio | US Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Unipol Domus |
| 84' |
| ⚽ |
| Nikola Krstović · US Lecce |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 490.00 | 65.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.08 | 3.92 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1615.52 | 1634.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.85 | 30.62 |
| eye test v1 | -0.48 | 1.12 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.60 | 57.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.70 |
| league points | 32.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.40 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.80 | 44.20 |
| rest days | 5.66 | 7.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 0.94 | 1.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.08 | -0.02 |
| solidity v1 | 0.00 | 0.96 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 26.20 | 25.63 |
| state index | 0.17 | 0.69 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.24 | -1.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.17 | 0.93 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.14 | 1.67 |