← Serie A 2023-24 · Sat, May 4, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Pairetto
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 52% | 53% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.75 | value: +3% |
| AC Monza win | 22% | 20% | 4.69 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio +0.5 | 53% | 1.86 |
| AC Monza +0.5 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 49% | 1.95 | fair |
| Under | 50% | 51% | 1.96 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Ciro Immobile · SS Lazio |
| 15' | 🟨 | Mattia Zaccagni · SS Lazio |
| 35' | 🟨 | Nicolò Casale · SS Lazio |
| 45' | 🟨 | Daichi Kamada · SS Lazio |
| 56' | 🟨 | Alessio Romagnoli · SS Lazio |
| 68' | 🟨 | Patric · SS Lazio |
| 73' | ⚽ | Milan Đurić · AC Monza |
| 83' | ⚽ | Matías Vecino · SS Lazio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Giulio Donati · AC Monza |
| 90' | 🟨 | Danilo Cataldi · SS Lazio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Matías Vecino · |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AC Monza | SS Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.08 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | U-Power Stadium |
| 90' | ⚽ | Milan Đurić · AC Monza |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 611.00 |
| 64.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | 5.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 1.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.43 | 2.80 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1651.11 | 1758.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.05 | 20.78 |
| eye test v1 | -1.41 | -0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.56 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.10 | 50.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.79 |
| league points | 44.00 | 55.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 86.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 63.00 |
| rest days | 7.13 | 6.89 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.62 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | 5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.27 | 0.98 |
| solidity v1 | -0.94 | 1.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | — | 28.07 |
| state index | -0.29 | 1.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.37 | 1.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.67 | 0.59 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.77 | 1.11 |