← Serie A 2023-24 · Sun, Apr 28, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Sacchi
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 58% | 63% | 1.66 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 3.77 | fair |
| Udinese Calcio win | 16% | 12% | 6.17 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bologna FC 1909 −0.75 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Udinese Calcio −0.75 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 49% | 1.70 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 51% | 2.26 | value: +14% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 42' | 🟨 | Kingsley Ehizibue · Udinese Calcio |
| 45' | ⚽ | Martín Payero · Udinese Calcio |
| 50' | 🟨 | Maduka Okoye · Udinese Calcio |
| 53' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Lucca · Udinese Calcio |
| 55' | 🟨 | Sam Beukema · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 64' | 🟨 | Sam Beukema · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 64' | 🟥 | Sam Beukema · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 68' | 🟨 | Nehuén Pérez · Udinese Calcio |
| 75' | 🟨 | Joshua Zirkzee · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 78' | ⚽ | Alexis Saelemaekers · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 82' | 🟨 | Martín Payero |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 10 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 21 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bologna FC 1909 | Udinese Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadio Renato Dall'Ara |
| 89' | 🟨 | Keinan Davis · Udinese Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | João Ferreira · Udinese Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 605.00 |
| 27.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -5.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 8.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.43 | 1.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.01 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1784.95 | 1584.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.40 | -33.00 |
| eye test v1 | 0.73 | -1.12 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.10 | 63.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.73 |
| league points | 62.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.00 | 72.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.20 | 36.20 |
| rest days | 5.85 | 2.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.88 | 0.85 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.58 | -1.26 |
| solidity v1 | 1.31 | -0.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 1.80 |
| squad age | 26.08 | 26.19 |
| state index | 1.31 | -0.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.21 | -1.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.90 | 1.57 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.83 | 0.89 |