← Serie A 2023-24 · Sat, Apr 27, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: D. Massa
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 60% | 58% | 1.61 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 28% | 4.20 | value: +16% |
| Hellas Verona FC win | 17% | 14% | 6.01 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hellas Verona FC −1 | 52% | 1.87 |
| SS Lazio −1 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 54% | 1.92 | value: +4% |
| Under | 49% | 46% | 1.99 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 38' | 🟨 | Alessio Romagnoli · SS Lazio |
| 49' | 🟨 | Nicolò Casale · SS Lazio |
| 71' | 🟨 | Luis Alberto · SS Lazio |
| 71' | 🟨 | Ondrej Duda · Hellas Verona FC |
| 72' | ⚽ | Mattia Zaccagni · SS Lazio |
| 74' | 🟨 | Juan Cabal · Hellas Verona FC |
| 86' | 🟨 | Diego Coppola · Hellas Verona FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mattia Zaccagni · SS Lazio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tijjani Noslin · Hellas Verona FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 18 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SS Lazio | Hellas Verona FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days |
| 57.00 |
| 301.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.83 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1754.28 | 1564.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.85 | 3.26 |
| eye test v1 | 0.06 | -0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.34 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 45.20 | 54.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.66 |
| league points | 52.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.40 | 73.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.60 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 8.09 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.58 | 0.94 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.11 | -0.41 |
| solidity v1 | 0.84 | -0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 28.07 | 24.82 |
| state index | 1.03 | 0.00 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.78 | -0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.90 | 1.77 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.54 | 1.13 |