← Serie A 2023-24 · Fri, Apr 26, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: F. Fourneau
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frosinone Calcio win | 70% | 71% | 1.39 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 19% | 5.16 | fair |
| Salernitana win | 12% | 10% | 8.57 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Salernitana −1.5 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Frosinone Calcio −1.5 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 59% | 1.57 | fair |
| Under | 38% | 41% | 2.54 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Junior Sambia · Salernitana |
| 10' | ⚽ (pen) | Matías Soulé · Frosinone Calcio |
| 25' | ⚽ | Marco Brescianini · Frosinone Calcio |
| 36' | 🟨 | Niccolò Pierozzi · Salernitana |
| 41' | 🟨 | Nadir Zortea · Frosinone Calcio |
| 50' | 🟨 | Luca Mazzitelli · Frosinone Calcio |
| 85' | ⚽ | Nadir Zortea · Frosinone Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 17 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Frosinone Calcio | Salernitana |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Stadio Benito Stirpe |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 300.00 | 56.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.53 | 2.54 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.34 |
| elo | 1610.54 | 1513.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.67 | -26.05 |
| eye test v1 | 0.08 | -0.73 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.80 | 51.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.65 |
| league points | 28.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 12.00 | 15.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.40 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.00 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 5.24 | 5.11 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.85 | 0.45 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.56 | -0.75 |
| solidity v1 | -0.80 | -1.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 25.37 | 27.26 |
| state index | -0.32 | -1.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.06 | 0.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.89 | 1.81 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.27 | 0.75 |