← Serie A 2023-24 · Thu, Apr 25, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Pairetto
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 41% | 38% | 2.38 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 26% | 3.20 | fair |
| Udinese Calcio win | 28% | 36% | 3.58 | value: +30% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Udinese Calcio +0.25 | 51% | 1.92 |
| AS Roma +0.25 | 49% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 55% | 1.63 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 45% | 2.40 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | ⚽ | Roberto Pereyra · Udinese Calcio |
| 31' | 🟨 | Hassane Kamara · Udinese Calcio |
| 58' | 🟨 | Jaka Bijol · Udinese Calcio |
| 64' | ⚽ | Romelu Lukaku · AS Roma |
| 66' | 🟨 | Martín Payero · Udinese Calcio |
| 69' | 🟨 | Tommaso Baldanzi · AS Roma |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rick Karsdorp · AS Roma |
| 90' | ⚽ | Bryan Cristante · AS Roma |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 19 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 8 |
| 15 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Udinese Calcio | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| venue | Bluenergy Stadium |
| coach days |
| 24.00 |
| 115.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.16 | 2.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1590.36 | 1798.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.75 | 6.47 |
| eye test v1 | -0.88 | -0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.50 | 52.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.84 |
| league points | 28.00 | 55.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.40 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.80 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 4.97 | 3.06 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 1.72 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.16 | 0.07 |
| solidity v1 | -0.64 | 0.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.01 | 28.91 |
| state index | -0.29 | 0.71 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.37 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.71 | 1.18 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.99 | 1.22 |