← Serie A 2023-24 · Mon, Apr 22, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: A. Colombo
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| FC Internazionale Milano win | 47% | 45% | 2.04 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 23% | 3.50 | fair |
| AC Milan win | 25% | 32% | 4.01 | value: +29% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| AC Milan +0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| FC Internazionale Milano +0.5 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 52% | 65% | 1.89 | value: +22% |
| Under | 48% | 35% | 2.02 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 19 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 2 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stadio Giuseppe Meazza |