← Serie A 2023-24 · Mon, Apr 22, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Maresca
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 41% | 43% | 2.39 | fair |
| Draw | 33% | 28% | 2.99 | fair |
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 27% | 29% | 3.63 | value: +5% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bologna FC 1909 −0.25 | 52% | 1.91 |
| AS Roma −0.25 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 64% | 51% | 1.51 | fair |
| Over | 36% | 49% | 2.72 | value: +34% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Leandro Paredes · AS Roma |
| 6' | 🟨 | Joshua Zirkzee · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 13' | 🟨 | Angeliño · AS Roma |
| 14' | ⚽ | Oussama El Azzouzi · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 33' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Pellegrini · AS Roma |
| 40' | 🟨 | Stephan El Shaarawy · AS Roma |
| 45' | ⚽ | Joshua Zirkzee · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 55' | ⚽ | Sardar Azmoun · AS Roma |
| 63' | 🟨 | Diego Llorente · AS Roma |
| 63' | 🟨 | Remo Freuler · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 65' | ⚽ | Alexis Saelemaekers |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 12 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Roma | Bologna FC 1909 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 112.00 |
| 599.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.72 | 3.29 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.68 |
| elo | 1818.25 | 1765.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.21 | -4.32 |
| eye test v1 | -0.49 | 0.78 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.20 | 62.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.79 |
| league points | 55.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 88.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 65.80 |
| rest days | 3.90 | 8.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.77 | 1.84 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 8.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 16.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.16 | 1.72 |
| solidity v1 | 0.84 | 1.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 29.94 | 25.84 |
| state index | 1.28 | 1.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.57 | 1.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.07 | 0.66 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.95 | 1.77 |