← Serie A 2023-24 · Sun, Apr 21, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: A. Giua
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 51% | 46% | 1.91 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 27% | 4.00 | value: +7% |
| AC Monza win | 24% | 27% | 4.29 | value: +17% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC +0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| AC Monza +0.5 | 48% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 49% | 1.85 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 51% | 2.06 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Samuele Birindelli · AC Monza |
| 44' | ⚽ | Charles De Ketelaere · Atalanta BC |
| 66' | 🟨 | Armando Izzo · AC Monza |
| 72' | ⚽ | El Bilal Touré · Atalanta BC |
| 83' | 🟨 | Berat Djimsiti · Atalanta BC |
| 89' | ⚽ | Daniel Maldini · AC Monza |
| 90' | 🟨 | Warren Bondo · AC Monza |
| 90' | 🟨 | Isak Hien · Atalanta BC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 12 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 8 |
| 8 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AC Monza | Atalanta BC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.00 |
| venue | U-Power Stadium |
| coach days |
| 598.00 |
| 2881.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -6.60 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.37 | 2.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1658.59 | 1811.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.21 | 11.58 |
| eye test v1 | -1.00 | 0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.47 | 0.62 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.60 | 60.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.65 |
| league points | 43.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 72.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.00 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 2.99 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.34 | 1.65 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.80 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.37 | -0.84 |
| solidity v1 | -0.67 | -0.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.20 |
| squad age | — | 28.51 |
| state index | 0.11 | 0.72 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.17 | -0.64 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.68 | 1.56 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.87 | 1.28 |