← Serie A 2023-24 · Sun, Apr 21, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Marchetti
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina win | 60% | 62% | 1.61 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 22% | 4.22 | fair |
| Salernitana win | 17% | 16% | 6.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Salernitana +1 | 52% | 1.88 |
| ACF Fiorentina +1 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 58% | 1.76 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 42% | 2.14 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Maxime López · ACF Fiorentina |
| 45' | 🟨 | Toma Bašić · Salernitana |
| 45' | 🟨 | Riccardo Sottil · ACF Fiorentina |
| 47' | 🟨 | Luca Ranieri · ACF Fiorentina |
| 60' | 🟨 | Antonio Candreva · Salernitana |
| 77' | 🟨 | Lucas Martínez Quarta · ACF Fiorentina |
| 80' | ⚽ | Christian Kouamé · ACF Fiorentina |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jonathan Ikoné · ACF Fiorentina |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 12 |
| 1 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Salernitana | ACF Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Stadio Arechi |
| 0.80 |
| coach days | 51.00 | 1025.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 5.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 8.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | 4.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1521.16 | 1764.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.91 | -23.09 |
| eye test v1 | -0.22 | 0.59 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.28 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.90 | 61.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.68 |
| league points | 15.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 14.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 86.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 65.00 |
| rest days | 8.89 | 2.97 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 0.47 | 1.42 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | 6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.10 | 1.33 |
| solidity v1 | -1.42 | 0.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 27.89 | 28.05 |
| state index | -1.38 | 0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.71 | 0.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.05 | 1.36 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.89 | 1.51 |