← Serie A 2023-24 · Fri, Apr 19, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: M. Piccinini
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 51% | 52% | 1.96 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.50 | fair |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 21% | 21% | 4.75 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cagliari Calcio +0.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Juventus FC +0.5 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 58% | 1.63 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 42% | 2.38 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | ⚽ (pen) | Gianluca Gaetano · Cagliari Calcio |
| 35' | 🟨 | Wojciech Szczęsny · Juventus FC |
| 36' | ⚽ (pen) | Yerry Mina · Cagliari Calcio |
| 45' | 🟨 | Zito Luvumbo · Cagliari Calcio |
| 45' | 🟨 | Tim Weah · Juventus FC |
| 48' | 🟨 | Bremer · Juventus FC |
| 60' | 🟨 | Nahitan Nández · Cagliari Calcio |
| 61' | ⚽ | Dušan Vlahović · Juventus FC |
| 87' | ⚽ (og) | Alberto Dossena · Juventus FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cagliari Calcio | Juventus FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Unipol Domus |
| coach days |
| 474.00 |
| 1084.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 3.40 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1580.16 | 1814.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.91 | -15.39 |
| eye test v1 | -0.31 | -0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.20 | 58.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.78 |
| league points | 31.00 | 63.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.20 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.60 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.11 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 1.97 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.88 | -0.08 |
| solidity v1 | 0.13 | 1.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| squad age | — | 27.69 |
| state index | 0.37 | 0.51 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.13 | -0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.19 | 0.57 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.21 | 1.20 |