← Serie A 2023-24 · Sun, Apr 14, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Massa
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 54% | 57% | 1.80 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | 4.00 | fair |
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 21% | 20% | 4.51 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| US Sassuolo Calcio +0.75 | 52% | 1.90 |
| AC Milan +0.75 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 58% | 1.67 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 42% | 2.32 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Andrea Pinamonti · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 10' | ⚽ | Armand Laurienté · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 19' | 🟨 | Gian Marco Ferrari · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 20' | ⚽ | Rafael Leão · AC Milan |
| 53' | ⚽ | Armand Laurienté · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 57' | 🟨 | Ruan · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 59' | ⚽ | Luka Jović · AC Milan |
| 68' | 🟨 | Malick Thiaw · AC Milan |
| 69' | 🟨 | Andrea Pinamonti · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 84' | ⚽ | Noah Okafor · AC Milan |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 23 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | US Sassuolo Calcio | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore |
| coach days |
| 44.00 |
| 1657.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.94 | 2.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1546.30 | 1863.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.95 | 14.53 |
| eye test v1 | -0.40 | 1.57 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.00 | 52.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.75 |
| league points | 25.00 | 68.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 88.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.60 | 57.80 |
| rest days | 8.76 | 2.75 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 0.81 | 2.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.39 | 1.38 |
| solidity v1 | 0.84 | 0.78 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 7.00 |
| squad age | 25.91 | 27.45 |
| state index | -0.07 | 1.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.29 | 0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.69 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.01 | 2.21 |