← Serie A 2023-24 · Sun, Apr 14, 10:30 AM UTC · ref: M. Fabbri
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 72% | 72% | 1.33 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 14% | 5.80 | fair |
| Frosinone Calcio win | 11% | 14% | 9.25 | value: +27% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Frosinone Calcio −1.5 | 51% | 1.95 |
| SSC Napoli −1.5 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 61% | 1.45 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 39% | 2.88 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Matteo Politano · SSC Napoli |
| 29' | 🟨 | Amir Rrahmani · SSC Napoli |
| 50' | ⚽ | Walid Cheddira · Frosinone Calcio |
| 63' | ⚽ | Victor Osimhen · SSC Napoli |
| 66' | 🟨 | Mário Rui · SSC Napoli |
| 73' | ⚽ | Walid Cheddira · Frosinone Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mário Rui · SSC Napoli |
| 90' | 🟥 | Mário Rui · SSC Napoli |
| 90' | 🟨 | Caleb Okoli · Frosinone Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 13 |
| 9 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SSC Napoli | Frosinone Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| venue | Stadio Diego Armando Maradona |
| coach days |
| 73.00 |
| 288.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.57 | 3.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1795.43 | 1560.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.75 | -9.87 |
| eye test v1 | 1.08 | -0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.10 | 52.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.87 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.59 |
| league points | 48.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.20 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.40 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.55 | 0.84 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.20 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.42 | -0.08 |
| solidity v1 | 0.27 | -0.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 28.33 | — |
| state index | 0.81 | -0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.75 | -0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.11 | 1.70 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.78 | 1.20 |