← Serie A 2023-24 · Sun, Apr 7, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Rapuano
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 54% | 41% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.76 | fair |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 20% | 32% | 4.75 | value: +51% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cagliari Calcio +0.75 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Atalanta BC +0.75 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 55% | 1.89 | value: +5% |
| Under | 48% | 45% | 2.03 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Gianluca Scamacca · Atalanta BC |
| 42' | ⚽ | Tommaso Augello · Cagliari Calcio |
| 54' | 🟨 | Marten de Roon · Atalanta BC |
| 63' | 🟨 | Davide Zappacosta · Atalanta BC |
| 66' | 🟨 | Alessandro Deiola · Cagliari Calcio |
| 73' | 🟨 | Nahitan Nández · Cagliari Calcio |
| 74' | 🟨 | Rafael Tolói · Atalanta BC |
| 75' | 🟨 | Zito Luvumbo · Cagliari Calcio |
| 88' | ⚽ | Nicolas Viola · Cagliari Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 19 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cagliari Calcio | Atalanta BC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | Unipol Domus |
| coach days |
| 462.00 |
| 2867.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 3.19 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1556.14 | 1820.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.03 | 18.79 |
| eye test v1 | -0.57 | -0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.40 | 56.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.81 |
| league points | 27.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.60 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.20 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 6.13 | 8.19 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 0.90 | 1.72 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -8.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.18 | -0.13 |
| solidity v1 | 0.32 | 0.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | — | 27.72 |
| state index | 0.20 | 0.82 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.13 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.23 | 1.15 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.13 | 1.09 |