← Serie A 2023-24 · Sun, Apr 7, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Doveri
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 53% | 60% | 1.83 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 25% | 21% | 3.80 | fair |
| AC Monza win | 22% | 19% | 4.60 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AC Monza +0.75 | 53% | 1.86 |
| SSC Napoli +0.75 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 58% | 1.86 | value: +7% |
| Under | 48% | 42% | 2.05 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Giulio Donati · AC Monza |
| 9' | ⚽ | Milan Đurić · AC Monza |
| 41' | 🟨 | Cyril Ngonge · SSC Napoli |
| 46' | 🟨 | Jean-Daniel Akpa Akpro · AC Monza |
| 55' | ⚽ | Victor Osimhen · SSC Napoli |
| 57' | ⚽ | Matteo Politano · SSC Napoli |
| 61' | ⚽ | Piotr Zieliński · SSC Napoli |
| 62' | ⚽ | Andrea Colpani · AC Monza |
| 69' | ⚽ | Giacomo Raspadori · SSC Napoli |
| 87' | 🟨 | Luca Caldirola · AC Monza |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 19 |
| 2 | On target | 8 |
| 1 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AC Monza | SSC Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | U-Power Stadium |
| coach days | 584.00 | 66.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.91 | 3.74 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1712.22 | 1839.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.02 | 1.13 |
| eye test v1 | 0.20 | 1.22 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.30 | 58.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.78 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.84 | — |
| league points | 42.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.40 | 87.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 63.60 |
| rest days | 7.96 | 8.06 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 18.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.49 | 1.58 |
| solidity v1 | -0.04 | 0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 28.51 | 28.76 |
| state index | 0.59 | 0.80 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.14 | 0.76 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.38 | 1.10 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.36 | 1.85 |