← Serie A 2023-24 · Sat, Apr 6, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Guida
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 45% | 46% | 2.14 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.24 | fair |
| SS Lazio win | 25% | 25% | 4.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AS Roma −0.25 | 54% | 1.83 |
| SS Lazio −0.25 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 62% | 1.74 | value: +8% |
| Over | 44% | 38% | 2.23 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Matías Vecino · SS Lazio |
| 42' | ⚽ | Gianluca Mancini · AS Roma |
| 55' | 🟨 | Gianluca Mancini · AS Roma |
| 68' | 🟨 | Zeki Çelik · AS Roma |
| 73' | 🟨 | Pedro · SS Lazio |
| 75' | 🟨 | Valentín Castellanos · SS Lazio |
| 80' | 🟨 | Leandro Paredes · AS Roma |
| 90' | 🟨 | Romelu Lukaku · AS Roma |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Pellegrini · AS Roma |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 15 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Roma | SS Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.40 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days | 96.00 | 36.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 2.88 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1843.83 | 1800.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.77 | -16.69 |
| eye test v1 | -0.10 | 0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.43 | 0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.80 | 49.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.85 | — |
| league points | 52.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.40 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 55.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.13 |
| season ppg | 1.73 | 1.53 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.40 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.45 | 0.83 |
| solidity v1 | 0.16 | -0.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.37 | 27.66 |
| state index | 0.91 | 0.60 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.73 | 0.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.38 | 1.56 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.62 |