← Serie A 2023-24 · Fri, Apr 5, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: S. Sozza
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 43% | 46% | 2.31 | value: +7% |
| Salernitana win | 30% | 28% | 3.22 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.53 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Salernitana +0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| US Sassuolo Calcio +0.25 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 51% | 1.83 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 49% | 2.06 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Niccolò Pierozzi · Salernitana |
| 37' | ⚽ | Armand Laurienté · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 44' | ⚽ | Nedim Bajrami · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 52' | ⚽ (pen) | Antonio Candreva · Salernitana |
| 62' | 🟨 | Giulio Maggiore · Salernitana |
| 67' | 🟨 | Armand Laurienté · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 72' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Pirola · Salernitana |
| 82' | 🟨 | Marash Kumbulla · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Emanuel Vignato · Salernitana |
| 90' | 🟨 | Uroš Račić · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 90' | ⚽ | Giulio Maggiore |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 5 | Shots | 16 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 9 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Salernitana | US Sassuolo Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.43 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stadio Arechi |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 35.00 |
| 35.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.35 | 2.76 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1474.97 | 1546.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.73 | -13.97 |
| eye test v1 | -0.33 | -0.85 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.37 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.70 | 60.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | — |
| league points | 14.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.00 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 4.34 | 4.24 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 0.47 | 0.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.28 | -0.88 |
| solidity v1 | -1.25 | -0.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| squad age | — | 25.91 |
| state index | -1.26 | -0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.38 | -0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.06 | 1.28 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.95 | 0.62 |