← Serie A 2023-24 · Sat, Mar 30, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: F. Maresca
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 40% | 39% | 2.45 | fair |
| ACF Fiorentina win | 32% | 31% | 3.08 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.44 | value: +3% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina +0.25 | 54% | 1.84 |
| AC Milan +0.25 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 48% | 1.95 | fair |
| Under | 50% | 52% | 1.96 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Cristiano Biraghi · ACF Fiorentina |
| 21' | 🟨 | Malick Thiaw · AC Milan |
| 24' | 🟨 | Lucas Martínez Quarta · ACF Fiorentina |
| 47' | ⚽ | Ruben Loftus-Cheek · AC Milan |
| 50' | ⚽ | Alfred Duncan · ACF Fiorentina |
| 53' | ⚽ | Rafael Leão · AC Milan |
| 89' | 🟨 | Fikayo Tomori · AC Milan |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ruben Loftus-Cheek · AC Milan |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 14 |
| 7 | On target | 10 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ACF Fiorentina | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadio Artemio Franchi |
| coach days |
| 1003.00 |
| 1642.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.41 | 3.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1741.40 | 1865.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.47 | 35.64 |
| eye test v1 | 0.82 | 1.06 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | -0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.80 | 50.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.70 |
| league points | 43.00 | 62.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.80 | 89.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.60 | 61.20 |
| rest days | 16.08 | 13.24 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.54 | 2.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 16.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.80 | 1.34 |
| solidity v1 | 1.33 | 1.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 6.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.20 |
| squad age | 26.26 | 26.20 |
| state index | 0.76 | 1.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.14 | 0.99 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.58 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.73 | 1.83 |