← Serie A 2023-24 · Sat, Mar 16, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: A. Rapuano
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 43% | 48% | 2.31 | value: +11% |
| Frosinone Calcio win | 29% | 28% | 3.31 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 23% | 3.42 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio +0.25 | 50% | 1.98 |
| Frosinone Calcio +0.25 | 50% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 50% | 1.91 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 50% | 1.99 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Pol Lirola · Frosinone Calcio |
| 34' | 🟨 | Luca Pellegrini · SS Lazio |
| 38' | ⚽ | Mattia Zaccagni · SS Lazio |
| 55' | 🟨 | Enzo Barrenechea · Frosinone Calcio |
| 57' | ⚽ | Valentín Castellanos · SS Lazio |
| 62' | ⚽ | Valentín Castellanos · SS Lazio |
| 70' | ⚽ | Walid Cheddira · Frosinone Calcio |
| 88' | 🟨 | Manuel Lazzari · SS Lazio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Valentín Castellanos · SS Lazio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 22 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Frosinone Calcio | SS Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.60 |
| venue | Stadio Benito Stirpe |
| coach days |
| 259.00 |
| 15.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.71 | 2.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1559.19 | 1730.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -34.66 | -30.95 |
| eye test v1 | -0.12 | -0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.54 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.40 | 45.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.53 | 0.68 |
| league points | 24.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 83.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 7.24 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 0.86 | 1.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.05 | 0.12 |
| solidity v1 | -0.87 | -0.42 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | — | 28.07 |
| state index | -0.81 | 0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.08 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.63 | 1.61 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.11 | 1.09 |