← Serie A 2023-24 · Sat, Mar 16, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Maresca
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Lecce win | 44% | 42% | 2.20 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.30 | fair |
| Salernitana win | 27% | 32% | 3.69 | value: +18% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| US Lecce +0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Salernitana +0.25 | 48% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 54% | 1.74 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 46% | 2.19 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ (og) | Norbert Gyömbér · US Lecce |
| 30' | 🟨 | Lassana Coulibaly · Salernitana |
| 45' | 🟨 | Giulio Maggiore · Salernitana |
| 49' | 🟨 | Ylber Ramadani · US Lecce |
| 54' | 🟨 | Roberto Piccoli · US Lecce |
| 73' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Pirola · Salernitana |
| 82' | 🟨 | Alessandro Zanoli · Salernitana |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marin Pongračić · US Lecce |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 17 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 9 | Fouls | 18 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Salernitana | US Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadio Arechi |
| coach days | 15.00 | 15.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.21 | 2.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1539.45 | 1594.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -34.69 | -30.63 |
| eye test v1 | -0.77 | -0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.60 | 59.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.56 |
| league points | 14.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.00 | 73.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 41.00 |
| rest days | 7.13 | 6.23 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 0.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.20 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.06 | -0.89 |
| solidity v1 | -2.53 | -0.94 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 28.85 | 25.43 |
| state index | -1.27 | -0.83 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.61 | -1.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.73 | 1.56 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.97 |