← Serie A 2023-24 · Sat, Mar 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Colombo
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino FC win | 35% | 32% | 2.81 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 30% | 3.00 | fair |
| Udinese Calcio win | 32% | 37% | 3.00 | value: +12% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Torino FC +0 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Udinese Calcio +0 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 61% | 1.56 | fair |
| Over | 38% | 39% | 2.58 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Duván Zapata · Torino FC |
| 43' | 🟨 | Walace · Udinese Calcio |
| 45' | 🟨 | Kingsley Ehizibue · Udinese Calcio |
| 52' | 🟨 | Alessandro Buongiorno · Torino FC |
| 53' | ⚽ | Nikola Vlasic · Torino FC |
| 57' | 🟨 | Lautaro Giannetti · Udinese Calcio |
| 87' | 🟨 | Saba Sazonov · Torino FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 12 |
| 1 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Udinese Calcio | Torino FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Bluenergy Stadium |
| coach days | 167.00 | 989.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 2.47 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1672.15 | 1737.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.84 | -9.50 |
| eye test v1 | -0.53 | -0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 46.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.86 |
| league points | 27.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.40 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 4.76 | 7.76 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 1.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.63 | -0.17 |
| solidity v1 | 0.26 | 0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 26.78 | 27.30 |
| state index | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.00 | -0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.32 | 0.91 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.99 | 1.03 |