← Serie A 2023-24 · Mon, Mar 11, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: G. Aureliano
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 51% | 50% | 1.91 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.50 | fair |
| Udinese Calcio win | 21% | 22% | 4.73 | value: +4% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio −0.5 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Udinese Calcio −0.5 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 57% | 1.71 | fair |
| Over | 44% | 43% | 2.24 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 44' | 🟨 | Nehuén Pérez · Udinese Calcio |
| 45' | 🟨 | Felipe Anderson · SS Lazio |
| 47' | ⚽ | Lorenzo Lucca · Udinese Calcio |
| 49' | ⚽ (og) | Lautaro Giannetti · SS Lazio |
| 51' | ⚽ | Oier Zarraga · Udinese Calcio |
| 57' | 🟨 | Alessio Romagnoli · SS Lazio |
| 64' | 🟨 | Maduka Okoye · Udinese Calcio |
| 83' | 🟨 | Jaka Bijol · Udinese Calcio |
| 86' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Lucca · Udinese Calcio |
| 87' | 🟨 | Lazar Samardžić · Udinese Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Matías Vecino |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 14 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 9 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SS Lazio | Udinese Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nehuén Pérez · Udinese Calcio |
| 90' | 🟥 | Nehuén Pérez · Udinese Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 10.00 |
| 162.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.51 | 1.43 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1745.71 | 1602.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.88 | -4.13 |
| eye test v1 | -0.27 | -0.48 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | -0.55 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 45.80 | 56.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.77 |
| league points | 40.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 42.60 |
| rest days | 10.00 | 9.24 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.48 | 0.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.40 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.12 | -0.41 |
| solidity v1 | -0.33 | 1.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 28.07 | 26.60 |
| state index | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.30 | -0.76 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.52 | 0.90 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.92 | 0.94 |