← Serie A 2023-24 · Sun, Mar 10, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: D. Massa
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina win | 38% | 39% | 2.61 | fair |
| AS Roma win | 33% | 29% | 2.98 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 32% | 3.30 | value: +5% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina +0 | 53% | 1.84 |
| AS Roma +0 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 57% | 1.74 | fair |
| Over | 44% | 43% | 2.21 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Gianluca Mancini · AS Roma |
| 18' | ⚽ | Luca Ranieri · ACF Fiorentina |
| 37' | 🟨 | Leandro Paredes · AS Roma |
| 45' | 🟨 | Dean Huijsen · AS Roma |
| 57' | 🟨 | Giacomo Bonaventura · ACF Fiorentina |
| 58' | ⚽ | Houssem Aouar · AS Roma |
| 64' | 🟨 | Nikola Milenković · ACF Fiorentina |
| 68' | 🟨 | Evan Ndicka · AS Roma |
| 69' | ⚽ | Rolando Mandragora · ACF Fiorentina |
| 75' | 🟨 | Tommaso Baldanzi · AS Roma |
| 90' | ⚽ | Diego Llorente |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ACF Fiorentina | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stadio Artemio Franchi |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 983.00 |
| 69.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.38 | 2.68 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1747.79 | 1800.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.22 | 44.35 |
| eye test v1 | 0.42 | 0.54 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.90 | 55.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.79 |
| league points | 42.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.00 | 85.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.20 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 2.99 | 3.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.56 | 1.74 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.60 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.89 | 0.82 |
| solidity v1 | 0.60 | 0.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 26.26 | 29.27 |
| state index | 0.78 | 1.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.47 | 0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.96 | 0.95 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.38 | 1.84 |