β Serie A 2023-24 Β· Sun, Mar 10, 11:30 AM UTC Β· ref: D. Chiffi
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
βMarketβ = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β the world's best guess. βModelβ = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| US Lecce win | 44% | 42% | 2.21 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 31% | 3.15 | fair |
| Hellas Verona FC win | 25% | 27% | 3.88 | value: +5% |
across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| US Lecce β0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Hellas Verona FC β0.25 | 48% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 61% | 65% | 1.58 | fair |
| Over | 39% | 35% | 2.53 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 11 | Corners | 6 |
| 15 | Fouls | 19 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β tap to expand
| venue | Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare |