← Serie A 2023-24 · Sat, Mar 2, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Piccinini
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 46% | 43% | 2.08 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.40 | fair |
| AC Monza win | 25% | 27% | 3.93 | value: +8% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AC Monza +0.5 | 53% | 1.85 |
| AS Roma +0.5 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 53% | 1.91 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 47% | 2.02 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Rasmus Kristensen · AS Roma |
| 38' | ⚽ | Lorenzo Pellegrini · AS Roma |
| 42' | ⚽ | Romelu Lukaku · AS Roma |
| 48' | 🟨 | Angeliño · AS Roma |
| 58' | 🟨 | Mile Svilar · AS Roma |
| 62' | 🟨 | Warren Bondo · AC Monza |
| 63' | ⚽ | Paulo Dybala · AS Roma |
| 82' | ⚽ (pen) | Leandro Paredes · AS Roma |
| 84' | 🟨 | Bryan Cristante · AS Roma |
| 87' | ⚽ | Andrea Carboni · AC Monza |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AC Monza | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | U-Power Stadium |
| coach days | 548.00 | 61.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.32 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.21 | 2.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1718.37 | 1820.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 37.27 | 11.85 |
| eye test v1 | -0.28 | -0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.51 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 46.80 | 54.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.90 | 0.78 |
| league points | 36.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.40 | 85.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.60 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 4.98 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.69 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.59 | 0.51 |
| solidity v1 | 0.87 | -0.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.24 | 27.99 |
| state index | 0.84 | 0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.03 | 0.71 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.93 | 1.01 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.07 | 1.18 |