← Serie A 2023-24 · Sat, Mar 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Manganiello
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Udinese Calcio win | 58% | 58% | 1.70 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 23% | 3.87 | fair |
| Salernitana win | 17% | 19% | 5.75 | value: +9% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Udinese Calcio −0.75 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Salernitana −0.75 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 47% | 1.90 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 53% | 2.02 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Loum Tchaouna · Salernitana |
| 16' | 🟨 | Festy Ebosele · Udinese Calcio |
| 36' | 🟨 | Martín Payero · Udinese Calcio |
| 45' | ⚽ | Hassane Kamara · Udinese Calcio |
| 47' | 🟨 | Lautaro Giannetti · Udinese Calcio |
| 47' | 🟨 | João Ferreira · Udinese Calcio |
| 50' | 🟨 | Marco Pellegrino · Salernitana |
| 64' | 🟨 | Festy Ebosele · Udinese Calcio |
| 64' | 🟥 | Festy Ebosele · Udinese Calcio |
| 75' | 🟨 | Walace · Udinese Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 17 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Udinese Calcio | Salernitana |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | Bluenergy Stadium |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 153.00 | 1.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -6.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 9.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 2.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1606.70 | 1494.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.23 | -28.22 |
| eye test v1 | -0.63 | -0.94 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.85 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 49.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.67 |
| league points | 23.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.80 | 40.20 |
| rest days | 6.76 | 6.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 0.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.74 | -0.72 |
| solidity v1 | 0.37 | -1.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 26.60 | — |
| state index | 0.02 | -1.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.84 | -0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.91 | 2.23 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.63 |