← Serie A 2023-24 · Fri, Mar 1, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: M. Di Bello
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 41% | 46% | 2.41 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.30 | fair |
| SS Lazio win | 29% | 25% | 3.40 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio +0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| AC Milan +0.25 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 51% | 1.77 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 49% | 2.16 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 50' | 🟨 | Luca Pellegrini · SS Lazio |
| 57' | 🟨 | Luca Pellegrini · SS Lazio |
| 57' | 🟥 | Luca Pellegrini · SS Lazio |
| 58' | 🟨 | Alessio Romagnoli · SS Lazio |
| 61' | 🟨 | Alessandro Florenzi · AC Milan |
| 70' | 🟨 | Yacine Adli · AC Milan |
| 76' | 🟨 | Ciro Immobile · SS Lazio |
| 80' | 🟨 | Matteo Gabbia · AC Milan |
| 84' | 🟨 | Theo Hernández · AC Milan |
| 88' | ⚽ | Noah Okafor · AC Milan |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 17 | Fouls | 19 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 3 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SS Lazio | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| 🟨 |
| Elseid Hysaj · SS Lazio |
| 90' | 🟥 | Mattéo Guendouzi · SS Lazio |
| 90' | 🟥 | Adam Marušić · SS Lazio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Christian Pulišić · AC Milan |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rafael Leão · AC Milan |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 0.00 | 1613.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.82 | 2.30 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1755.28 | 1830.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.23 | -18.90 |
| eye test v1 | -0.48 | 0.97 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 42.00 | 56.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.66 |
| league points | 40.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.80 | 85.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.54 | 2.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.20 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.00 | 0.78 |
| solidity v1 | -0.72 | -0.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 5.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 28.07 | 27.46 |
| state index | 0.28 | 0.57 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.65 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.78 | 1.48 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.90 | 1.54 |