← Serie A 2023-24 · Mon, Feb 26, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: J. Sacchi
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 48% | 46% | 2.01 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.21 | fair |
| Torino FC win | 22% | 24% | 4.54 | value: +10% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Torino FC −0.5 | 51% | 1.91 |
| AS Roma −0.5 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 61% | 57% | 1.57 | fair |
| Over | 39% | 43% | 2.54 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Valentino Lazaro · Torino FC |
| 33' | 🟨 | Samuele Ricci · Torino FC |
| 42' | ⚽ (pen) | Paulo Dybala · AS Roma |
| 44' | ⚽ | Duván Zapata · Torino FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Evan Ndicka · AS Roma |
| 57' | ⚽ | Paulo Dybala · AS Roma |
| 69' | ⚽ | Paulo Dybala · AS Roma |
| 85' | 🟨 | Bryan Cristante · AS Roma |
| 88' | ⚽ (og) | Dean Huijsen · Torino FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 6 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 0 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Roma | Torino FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days | 56.00 | 970.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.54 | 2.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1814.41 | 1738.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.91 | -8.36 |
| eye test v1 | 0.25 | -0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.70 | 56.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | — |
| league points | 41.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.60 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 57.80 |
| rest days | 3.90 | 3.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.64 | 1.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.69 | 0.66 |
| solidity v1 | 0.16 | 0.70 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 28.50 | 27.24 |
| state index | 0.72 | 0.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.30 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.99 | 0.75 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.45 | 1.29 |