← Serie A 2023-24 · Sun, Feb 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Pairetto
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 53% | 52% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 21% | 3.80 | fair |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 21% | 27% | 4.65 | value: +25% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cagliari Calcio +0.75 | 53% | 1.84 |
| SSC Napoli +0.75 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 52% | 1.83 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 48% | 2.06 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 36' | 🟨 | Gianluca Lapadula · Cagliari Calcio |
| 48' | 🟨 | Zito Luvumbo · Cagliari Calcio |
| 65' | ⚽ | Victor Osimhen · SSC Napoli |
| 68' | 🟨 | Nahitan Nández · Cagliari Calcio |
| 86' | 🟨 | Alessandro Deiola · Cagliari Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mathías Olivera · SSC Napoli |
| 90' | ⚽ | Zito Luvumbo · Cagliari Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cagliari Calcio | SSC Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.46 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Unipol Domus |
| coach days | 420.00 | 24.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 3.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1575.73 | 1844.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.34 | -6.92 |
| eye test v1 | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | 0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.60 | 55.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.74 |
| league points | 19.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 88.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 66.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.76 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 7.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.44 | 1.35 |
| solidity v1 | -1.31 | 1.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 27.12 | 27.23 |
| state index | -0.68 | 0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.37 | 1.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.91 | 0.54 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.89 | 1.14 |