← Serie A 2023-24 · Sat, Feb 24, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: F. Fourneau
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa CFC win | 39% | 44% | 2.53 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 32% | 29% | 3.00 | fair |
| Udinese Calcio win | 29% | 27% | 3.38 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Udinese Calcio −0.25 | 54% | 1.82 |
| Genoa CFC −0.25 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 65% | 62% | 1.49 | fair |
| Over | 35% | 38% | 2.80 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | 🟨 | Lautaro Giannetti · Udinese Calcio |
| 30' | 🟨 | Koni De Winter · Genoa CFC |
| 36' | ⚽ | Mateo Retegui · Genoa CFC |
| 40' | ⚽ | Mattia Bani · Genoa CFC |
| 41' | 🟨 | Thomas Kristensen · Udinese Calcio |
| 48' | 🟨 | Thomas Kristensen · Udinese Calcio |
| 48' | 🟥 | Thomas Kristensen · Udinese Calcio |
| 86' | 🟨 | Festy Ebosele · Udinese Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 5 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Genoa CFC | Udinese Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.20 |
| venue | Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris |
| coach days | 450.00 | 146.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.26 | 1.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1629.26 | 1618.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.35 | 0.19 |
| eye test v1 | 0.11 | -0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | -0.64 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.30 | 59.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.79 |
| league points | 30.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 39.80 |
| rest days | 7.24 | 6.24 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 0.92 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.61 | -0.88 |
| solidity v1 | -0.30 | -0.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| squad age | — | 26.60 |
| state index | 0.08 | 0.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.28 | -1.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.33 | 1.19 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.74 |