← Serie A 2023-24 · Sun, Feb 18, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: A. Colombo
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 55% | 54% | 1.76 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.71 | fair |
| AC Monza win | 19% | 19% | 5.16 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AC Monza +0.75 | 51% | 1.92 |
| AC Milan +0.75 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 50% | 1.93 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 50% | 2.01 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | 🟨 | Milan Đurić · AC Monza |
| 45' | 🟨 | Matteo Pessina · AC Monza |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Matteo Pessina · AC Monza |
| 45' | ⚽ | Dany Mota · AC Monza |
| 52' | 🟥 | Luka Jović · AC Milan |
| 64' | ⚽ | Olivier Giroud · AC Milan |
| 76' | 🟨 | Warren Bondo · AC Monza |
| 76' | 🟨 | Dany Mota · AC Monza |
| 83' | 🟨 | Matteo Gabbia · AC Milan |
| 88' | ⚽ | Christian Pulišić · AC Milan |
| 90' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 16 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AC Monza | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | U-Power Stadium |
| ⚽ |
| Warren Bondo · AC Monza |
| 90' | ⚽ | Lorenzo Colombo · AC Monza |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 535.00 | 1601.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 2.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1640.17 | 1865.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.47 | 21.78 |
| eye test v1 | -0.93 | 1.08 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.90 | 53.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.86 | 0.80 |
| league points | 30.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.40 | 86.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.60 | 55.40 |
| rest days | 7.24 | 2.99 |
| scorer concentration | 0.39 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 2.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.47 | 1.21 |
| solidity v1 | -0.37 | 0.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 6.00 |
| squad age | — | 26.95 |
| state index | -0.19 | 1.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.49 | 0.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.61 | 0.97 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.61 | 2.13 |