β Serie A 2023-24 Β· Sun, Feb 18, 11:30 AM UTC Β· ref: F. Maresca
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 38% | 38% | 2.57 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 35% | 3.03 | value: +7% |
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 30% | 26% | 3.25 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bologna FC 1909 β0.25 | 55% | 1.79 |
| SS Lazio β0.25 | 45% | 2.17 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 64% | 65% | 1.52 | fair |
| Over | 36% | 35% | 2.70 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | β½ | Gustav Isaksen Β· SS Lazio |
| 25' | π¨ | Giovanni Fabbian Β· Bologna FC 1909 |
| 35' | π¨ | Danilo Cataldi Β· SS Lazio |
| 39' | β½ | Oussama El Azzouzi Β· Bologna FC 1909 |
| 46' | π¨ | Oussama El Azzouzi Β· Bologna FC 1909 |
| 78' | π¨ | Adam MaruΕ‘iΔ Β· SS Lazio |
| 78' | β½ | Joshua Zirkzee Β· Bologna FC 1909 |
| 90' | π¨ | Michel Aebischer Β· Bologna FC 1909 |
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 5 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SS Lazio | Bologna FC 1909 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days | 992.00 | 535.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.71 | 3.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1814.31 | 1793.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.50 | 21.41 |
| eye test v1 | -0.99 | 0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 45.70 | 60.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.61 |
| league points | 37.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.80 | 86.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 61.60 |
| rest days | 7.90 | 3.73 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.61 | 1.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.09 | 1.14 |
| solidity v1 | 0.76 | 0.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 28.60 | 25.41 |
| state index | 0.84 | 0.99 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.76 | 0.87 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.01 | 1.36 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.88 | 1.44 |