← Serie A 2023-24 · Mon, Feb 12, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: R. Abisso
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 66% | 70% | 1.50 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 22% | 19% | 4.33 | fair |
| Udinese Calcio win | 12% | 11% | 8.72 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC −1 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Udinese Calcio −1 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 54% | 1.74 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 46% | 2.19 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Kingsley Ehizibue · Udinese Calcio |
| 25' | ⚽ | Lautaro Giannetti · Udinese Calcio |
| 38' | 🟨 | Bremer · Juventus FC |
| 74' | 🟨 | Federico Gatti · Juventus FC |
| 82' | 🟨 | Walace · Udinese Calcio |
| 89' | 🟨 | Isaac Success · Udinese Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Hans Nicolussi Caviglia · Juventus FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Juventus FC | Udinese Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Allianz Stadium |
| 3.20 |
| coach days | 1017.00 | 134.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.25 | 2.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1923.03 | 1661.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.28 | -16.16 |
| eye test v1 | 0.06 | 0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.60 | 53.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.77 |
| league points | 53.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.00 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 39.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.24 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 2.30 | 0.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.51 | -0.87 |
| solidity v1 | 0.95 | -0.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 27.02 | 26.44 |
| state index | 1.27 | -0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.19 | -1.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.84 | 1.16 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.38 | 0.80 |