← Serie A 2023-24 · Sun, Feb 11, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Colombo
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 47% | 50% | 2.05 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.32 | fair |
| Genoa CFC win | 24% | 22% | 4.18 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Genoa CFC +0.5 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Atalanta BC +0.5 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 56% | 1.66 | fair |
| Over | 42% | 44% | 2.34 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ | Charles De Ketelaere · Atalanta BC |
| 24' | 🟨 | Kevin Strootman · Genoa CFC |
| 24' | 🟨 | Charles De Ketelaere · Atalanta BC |
| 32' | 🟨 | Sead Kolašinac · Atalanta BC |
| 51' | ⚽ | Ruslan Malinovskyi · Genoa CFC |
| 54' | 🟨 | Mattia Bani · Genoa CFC |
| 55' | ⚽ | Teun Koopmeiners · Atalanta BC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Aarón Martín · Genoa CFC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Aleksei Miranchuk · Atalanta BC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marten de Roon · Atalanta BC |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 14 |
| 6 | On target | 9 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Genoa CFC | Atalanta BC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.52 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.82 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris |
| ⚽ |
| Davide Zappacosta · Atalanta BC |
| 90' | ⚽ | El Bilal Touré · Atalanta BC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 437.00 | 2811.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.04 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1636.45 | 1788.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.25 | 33.14 |
| eye test v1 | -0.26 | 0.97 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.40 | 0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.90 | 61.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.77 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.87 |
| league points | 29.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.80 | 53.40 |
| rest days | 8.13 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 1.77 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.77 | 0.77 |
| solidity v1 | 0.75 | 0.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 8.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.20 |
| squad age | — | 27.12 |
| state index | 0.40 | 1.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.16 | -0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.99 | 1.11 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.83 | 1.85 |