← Serie A 2023-24 · Sat, Feb 10, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Di Bello
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 45% | 37% | 2.18 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.36 | fair |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 26% | 37% | 3.69 | value: +36% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio +0.25 | 53% | 1.87 |
| Cagliari Calcio +0.25 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 63% | 1.75 | value: +10% |
| Over | 45% | 37% | 2.18 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ (og) | Alessandro Deiola · SS Lazio |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ciro Immobile · SS Lazio |
| 49' | ⚽ | Ciro Immobile · SS Lazio |
| 51' | ⚽ | Gianluca Gaetano · Cagliari Calcio |
| 52' | 🟨 | Antoine Makoumbou · Cagliari Calcio |
| 65' | ⚽ | Felipe Anderson · SS Lazio |
| 67' | 🟨 | Alessio Romagnoli · SS Lazio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Matías Vecino · SS Lazio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 8 |
| 6 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cagliari Calcio | SS Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.16 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.20 |
| venue | Unipol Domus |
| coach days | 405.00 | 984.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | 2.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1579.57 | 1806.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.28 | 5.94 |
| eye test v1 | -0.19 | -0.97 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.51 | -0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.30 | 45.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.71 |
| league points | 18.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.60 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 4.76 | 5.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 0.78 | 1.55 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.44 | 0.09 |
| solidity v1 | -1.04 | 0.91 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 1.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 26.75 | 27.60 |
| state index | -0.31 | 0.70 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.39 | 0.71 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.88 | 1.08 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.01 | 0.93 |