← Serie A 2023-24 · Fri, Feb 9, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: M. Mariani
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salernitana win | 40% | 39% | 2.50 | fair |
| Empoli win | 30% | 29% | 3.24 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 32% | 3.25 | value: +3% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Empoli −0.25 | 54% | 1.83 |
| Salernitana −0.25 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 61% | 1.64 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 39% | 2.39 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Alberto Cerri · Empoli |
| 21' | 🟨 | Youssef Maleh · Empoli |
| 23' | ⚽ (og) | Alessandro Zanoli · Empoli |
| 42' | 🟨 | Alessandro Zanoli · Salernitana |
| 69' | ⚽ | Shon Weissman · Salernitana |
| 77' | 🟨 | Toma Bašić · Salernitana |
| 88' | ⚽ (pen) | M'Baye Niang · Empoli |
| 90' | 🟨 | Domagoj Bradarić · Salernitana |
| 90' | ⚽ | Matteo Cancellieri · Empoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 17 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 10 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Salernitana | Empoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stadio Arechi |
| coach days | 8.00 | 39.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.04 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1523.44 | 1563.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.12 | 12.68 |
| eye test v1 | -0.92 | -0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | 0.52 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.70 | 51.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.77 |
| league points | 13.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.20 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 5.34 | 6.24 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.57 | 0.78 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.20 | -0.19 |
| solidity v1 | -0.13 | 0.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.72 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.56 | -0.60 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.59 | 0.96 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.88 |