← Serie A 2023-24 · Sun, Feb 4, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Piccinini
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 66% | 73% | 1.45 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 21% | 19% | 4.50 | fair |
| Hellas Verona FC win | 13% | 8% | 7.60 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli −1 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Hellas Verona FC −1 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 46% | 1.93 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 54% | 1.98 | value: +8% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | 🟨 | Diego Coppola · Hellas Verona FC |
| 46' | 🟨 | Mário Rui · SSC Napoli |
| 54' | 🟨 | Tomáš Suslov · Hellas Verona FC |
| 66' | 🟨 | Jesper Lindstrøm · SSC Napoli |
| 72' | ⚽ | Diego Coppola · Hellas Verona FC |
| 76' | 🟨 | Stanislav Lobotka · SSC Napoli |
| 79' | ⚽ (og) | Paweł Dawidowicz · SSC Napoli |
| 87' | ⚽ | Khvicha Kvaratskhelia · SSC Napoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 12 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SSC Napoli | Hellas Verona FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 |
| venue | Stadio Diego Armando Maradona |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 3.00 | 218.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.84 | 3.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1854.39 | 1592.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -41.35 | -9.57 |
| eye test v1 | -0.04 | -0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.30 | 56.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.69 |
| league points | 32.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.60 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.60 | 42.60 |
| rest days | 6.88 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.52 | 0.82 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.00 | -0.45 |
| solidity v1 | 0.51 | 0.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 29.10 | 26.27 |
| state index | 0.44 | -0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.13 | -0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.19 | 1.09 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.21 | 1.26 |