← Serie A 2023-24 · Fri, Feb 2, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: A. Giua
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina win | 43% | 47% | 2.29 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 30% | 24% | 3.30 | fair |
| US Lecce win | 27% | 29% | 3.60 | value: +5% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina +0.25 | 51% | 1.95 |
| US Lecce +0.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 57% | 1.66 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 43% | 2.35 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Lucas Martínez Quarta · ACF Fiorentina |
| 17' | ⚽ | Rémi Oudin · US Lecce |
| 50' | 🟨 | Pontus Almqvist · US Lecce |
| 50' | ⚽ | Rolando Mandragora · ACF Fiorentina |
| 67' | ⚽ | Lucas Beltrán · ACF Fiorentina |
| 72' | 🟨 | Luca Ranieri · ACF Fiorentina |
| 77' | 🟨 | Lameck Banda · US Lecce |
| 83' | 🟨 | Valentin Gendrey · US Lecce |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nicolás González · ACF Fiorentina |
| 90' | ⚽ | Roberto Piccoli · US Lecce |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 10 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 1 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | US Lecce | ACF Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare |
| ⚽ |
| Patrick Dorgu · US Lecce |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 216.00 | 946.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.02 | 2.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1566.89 | 1752.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.43 | -11.44 |
| eye test v1 | -0.34 | -0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | -0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.30 | 50.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.82 |
| league points | 21.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 17.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 58.80 |
| rest days | 5.34 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.95 | 1.62 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.24 | 0.73 |
| solidity v1 | -0.16 | 1.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | — | 26.26 |
| state index | -0.47 | 0.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.78 | 0.97 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.35 | 0.74 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.29 | 1.39 |