← Serie A 2023-24 · Mon, Jan 29, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: M. Di Bello
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 56% | 59% | 1.72 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 23% | 3.84 | fair |
| Salernitana win | 18% | 18% | 5.31 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AS Roma +0.75 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Salernitana +0.75 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 46% | 1.84 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 54% | 2.08 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Paulo Dybala · AS Roma |
| 43' | 🟨 | Niccolò Pierozzi · Salernitana |
| 45' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Pellegrini · AS Roma |
| 51' | ⚽ (pen) | Paulo Dybala · AS Roma |
| 66' | ⚽ | Lorenzo Pellegrini · AS Roma |
| 70' | ⚽ | Grigoris Kastanos · Salernitana |
| 87' | 🟨 | Antonio Candreva · Salernitana |
| 89' | 🟨 | Rui Patrício · AS Roma |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 5 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Salernitana | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| venue | Stadio Arechi |
| coach days | 120.00 | 28.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.21 | 2.98 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1522.97 | 1749.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.84 | 3.00 |
| eye test v1 | -0.57 | -0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.60 | 47.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.71 |
| league points | 12.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.00 | 53.40 |
| rest days | 8.11 | 9.11 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 0.57 | 1.52 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.97 | 0.56 |
| solidity v1 | -0.57 | 0.68 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | — | 28.67 |
| state index | -0.29 | 0.60 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.81 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.69 | 1.04 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.74 | 1.35 |