← Serie A 2023-24 · Sat, Jan 27, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: D. Massa
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 56% | 62% | 1.75 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 26% | 22% | 3.70 | fair |
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 18% | 16% | 5.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bologna FC 1909 −0.75 | 51% | 1.93 |
| AC Milan −0.75 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 48% | 1.76 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 52% | 2.17 | value: +12% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | 🟨 | Riccardo Calafiori · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 22' | 🟨 | Rafael Leão · AC Milan |
| 29' | ⚽ | Joshua Zirkzee · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 36' | 🟨 | Davide Calabria · AC Milan |
| 39' | 🟨 | Lewis Ferguson · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 44' | 🟨 | Yacine Adli · AC Milan |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ruben Loftus-Cheek · AC Milan |
| 45' | ⚽ | Ruben Loftus-Cheek · AC Milan |
| 57' | 🟨 | Kacper Urbański · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 83' | ⚽ | Ruben Loftus-Cheek · AC Milan |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 15 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 16 | Fouls | 12 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AC Milan | Bologna FC 1909 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.20 |
| venue | Stadio Giuseppe Meazza |
| 🟨 |
| Filippo Terracciano · AC Milan |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Riccardo Orsolini · Bologna FC 1909 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1579.00 | 513.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 3.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1907.27 | 1759.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.74 | -16.97 |
| eye test v1 | 1.04 | -0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | 0.53 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.90 | 60.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.70 |
| league points | 45.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.20 | 87.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.60 | 64.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 13.24 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 2.14 | 1.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.20 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.60 | 0.95 |
| solidity v1 | 0.23 | 1.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.80 | 25.65 |
| state index | 1.54 | 0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.75 | 1.63 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.97 | 0.74 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.94 | 0.81 |