← Serie A 2023-24 · Fri, Jan 26, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: A. Colombo
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino FC win | 44% | 38% | 2.24 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.20 | fair |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 26% | 34% | 3.88 | value: +32% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Torino FC +0.25 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Cagliari Calcio +0.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 65% | 59% | 1.52 | fair |
| Over | 35% | 41% | 2.71 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | ⚽ | Duván Zapata · Torino FC |
| 41' | 🟨 | Mateusz Wieteska · Cagliari Calcio |
| 45' | ⚽ | Samuele Ricci · Torino FC |
| 62' | 🟨 | Samuele Ricci · Torino FC |
| 73' | 🟨 | Nicolas Viola · Cagliari Calcio |
| 77' | ⚽ | Nicolas Viola · Cagliari Calcio |
| 82' | 🟨 | Vanja Milinković-Savić · Torino FC |
| 83' | 🟨 | Alessandro Buongiorno · Torino FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ricardo Rodríguez · Torino FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 25 | Shots | 16 |
| 10 | On target | 6 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cagliari Calcio | Torino FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | Unipol Domus |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 390.00 | 939.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.95 | 2.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1593.28 | 1746.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.96 | 16.49 |
| eye test v1 | -0.77 | -0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | -0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.80 | 58.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.90 |
| league points | 18.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.00 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 53.80 |
| rest days | 5.34 | 13.24 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.86 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.75 | 0.23 |
| solidity v1 | 0.22 | 1.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 24.34 | 26.62 |
| state index | 0.06 | 0.64 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.32 | 1.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.25 | 0.66 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.96 | 1.01 |