← Serie A 2023-24 · Sun, Jan 21, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Orsato
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa CFC win | 39% | 43% | 2.53 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 32% | 29% | 3.10 | fair |
| Salernitana win | 29% | 28% | 3.32 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Salernitana +0.25 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Genoa CFC +0.25 | 46% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 65% | 60% | 1.48 | fair |
| Over | 35% | 40% | 2.75 | value: +10% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Agustín Martegani · Salernitana |
| 13' | ⚽ | Mateo Retegui · Genoa CFC |
| 29' | 🟨 | Morten Frendrup · Genoa CFC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Milan Badelj · Genoa CFC |
| 58' | ⚽ (pen) | Albert Guðmundsson · Genoa CFC |
| 60' | 🟨 | Mattia Bani · Genoa CFC |
| 70' | 🟨 | Alessandro Vogliacco · Genoa CFC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Josep Martínez · Genoa CFC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 5 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 7 | Fouls | 15 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Salernitana | Genoa CFC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadio Arechi |
| coach days | 112.00 | 416.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.54 | 2.54 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1583.11 | 1662.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.21 | 30.09 |
| eye test v1 | -0.45 | -0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.70 | 58.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.74 |
| league points | 12.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.60 | 44.20 |
| rest days | 8.13 | 8.13 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| season ppg | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.60 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.04 | -0.60 |
| solidity v1 | -1.22 | 0.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 28.56 | 28.45 |
| state index | -0.21 | 0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.00 | -0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.84 | 1.32 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.85 | 0.74 |