← Serie A 2023-24 · Sat, Jan 20, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: F. Maresca
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 51% | 49% | 1.92 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.75 | fair |
| Udinese Calcio win | 23% | 27% | 4.26 | value: +17% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AC Milan +0.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Udinese Calcio +0.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 55% | 1.94 | value: +7% |
| Under | 50% | 45% | 1.97 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | ⚽ | Ruben Loftus-Cheek · AC Milan |
| 42' | ⚽ | Lazar Samardžić · Udinese Calcio |
| 45' | 🟨 | Hassane Kamara · Udinese Calcio |
| 52' | 🟨 | Festy Ebosele · Udinese Calcio |
| 55' | 🟨 | Florian Thauvin · Udinese Calcio |
| 62' | ⚽ | Florian Thauvin · Udinese Calcio |
| 65' | 🟨 | Walace · Udinese Calcio |
| 71' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Lucca · Udinese Calcio |
| 78' | 🟨 | João Ferreira · Udinese Calcio |
| 83' | ⚽ | Luka Jović · AC Milan |
| 88' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 15 |
| 6 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Udinese Calcio | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | Bluenergy Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Theo Hernández · AC Milan |
| 90' | ⚽ | Noah Okafor · AC Milan |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 111.00 | 1572.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.36 | 2.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1674.66 | 1901.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.92 | 20.51 |
| eye test v1 | 0.37 | 1.14 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | -0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.70 | 48.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.78 |
| league points | 18.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 88.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 35.00 | 56.60 |
| rest days | 6.11 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 0.90 | 2.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 17.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.10 | 1.30 |
| solidity v1 | -0.02 | 0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.20 |
| squad age | 25.84 | 27.66 |
| state index | 0.45 | 1.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.72 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.36 | 1.18 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.95 | 1.80 |