β Serie A 2023-24 Β· Sat, Jan 20, 05:00 PM UTC Β· ref: J. Sacchi
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
βMarketβ = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β the world's best guess. βModelβ = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| AS Roma win | 66% | 62% | 1.45 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 23% | 4.64 | value: +5% |
| Hellas Verona FC win | 13% | 15% | 8.29 | value: +25% |
across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Hellas Verona FC β1.25 | 52% | 1.87 |
| AS Roma β1.25 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 51% | 50% | 1.92 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 50% | 1.98 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 12 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 1 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β tap to expand